One of the world’s most stable partnerships will undergo a historic stress test over the coming days, pulled to the brink by differences involving cheese, court systems and political egos.
It took more than 120 years to build a Canada-United States free-trade pact after the last one collapsed, following the Civil War.
But now NAFTA is in danger, and a new deal is possible only if President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau can get past the personal insults and animosity they’ve displayed publicly for each other and find common ground.
There is certainly a path to an agreement. Trudeau would have to give ground on dairy, and Trump
“The elements of a deal are on the table, or close to the table,” said Maryscott Greenwood, CEO of the Canadian American Business Council and a former U.S. diplomat.
The sense of urgency is spurred by elections in three countries. The November U.S. midterms could change the NAFTA dynamic, and Mexico is in a hurry to sign a NAFTA deal before its president leaves office Nov. 30. On top of that, an Oct. 1 vote in Quebec — Canada’s largest dairy-producing region — is “complicating” the negotiations, according to a top U.S. official. The official blamed “political posturing” by Canadian officials who do not want to be seen to be “giving away the store” ahead of the election.
The key players returned to the negotiating table on Tuesday, but there were no major breakthroughs.
Besides the substantive issues of dairy and dispute resolution, also hanging over the negotiations are Trump’s consistent threats to just leave Canada out and do a deal only with Mexico.
The president’s staunchest backers credit him with recognizing that he has more power in these negotiations, and being willing to use it.
“[Trump] understands that a $22 trillion economy versus a $1.5 trillion economy gives him all of the leverage,” said Rep. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, Republican co-chair of the House Northern Border Caucus. “Not most of it, but all of it.”
Read more:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/12/canada-trump-trudeau-nafta-815785
Comments are closed.